University of Michigan: American young people share "recession signs" through social media, and the consumer confidence index of the 18-34 age group has dropped by 6%

For economists, the precursors of a recession may include slowing consumer spending and rising unemployment. For young Americans who are "addicted to the internet," the signs of a recession may be the decline in the popularity of false eyelashes, the increase in online university ads, or even skin care brands starting to sell eggs.

Joking about predicting a recession based on everyday events has become a popular trend in recent weeks as a stock market correction and weak economic data have raised concerns about the health of the U.S. economy, underscoring the extraordinary level of dissatisfaction with the economy among young Americans.

These “recession harbingers” are ubiquitous on social media platforms like Facebook, TikTok and Instagram. Some users see Lady Gaga releasing a new album or the change in quality of the third season of HBO’s hit series “White Lotus Resort” as a prelude to a recession. Others see learning to play the harmonica or wearing more brown clothes as early warning signs of an economic downturn.

Last week, several social media users used the news to joke after DoorDash, the largest food delivery platform in the United States, announced a partnership with financial technology service provider Klarna to launch a "buy now, pay later" food delivery service. A Klarna spokesperson also admitted to the media that "if people need a loan to pay for a meal, it is indeed a bad indicator for society."

Content creators are also using the jokes as a launching point to share affordable living alternatives to cut back on expenses on a tight budget.

These jokes did not come out of thin air, and relevant economic data also confirms the pessimism of young Americans about the economy. At the beginning of 2024, the consumer confidence index of people aged 18-34 was the highest among all age groups tracked by the University of Michigan. But since then, the confidence index of this age group has fallen by more than 6%, while the confidence index of other age groups has increased.

Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan's consumer survey, said that young people are usually more confident in their finances because they have fewer financial responsibilities, such as child support costs, but they are now facing higher housing costs and debt burdens, as well as uncertainty about the new administration's economic policies. She said: "I suspect that young people are or have begun to feel that many of the iconic goals of the American dream are now more out of reach."

Many of today’s young Americans, who grew up during the 2008 financial crisis and are coming of age during a pandemic that has disrupted everything from offline work to global supply chains, are worried about a slowing white-collar job market and the Trump administration’s erratic tariff policy, which has rattled financial markets in recent weeks.

To be clear, while they were joking when they shared their "favorite recession indicator," they were not amused by the future direction of the U.S. economy. "It's really a form of 'gallows humor,'" said James Cohen, assistant professor of media studies at Queens College in New York. "It's a total coping mechanism."

In addition to ordinary people, Wall Street is also worried about the possibility of a recession in the U.S. economy. A Deutsche Bank survey from March 17 to 20 found that the median forecast of global market strategists for the probability of a recession in the next 12 months was close to 43%.

Data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed that the U.S. consumer confidence index in March was 92.9, lower than the market expectation of 94.2 and 98.3 in February, and fell for the fourth consecutive month. Among the five components of the index, only the consumer's assessment of the current job market environment showed a slight improvement; the consumer expectations index reflecting short-term income prospects, business and job market environment fell to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years, and the consumer expectations index falling below 80 is usually a signal that the economy will enter a recession.

Meanwhile, searches for the word "recession" in March reached their highest level since 2022. Earlier this month, Trump refused to predict whether the United States would face a recession in a media interview, emphasizing that the U.S. economy would face a "transition period." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessant also said there was "no guarantee" that the United States would avoid a recession, saying the U.S. economy was too dependent on government spending and needed a "detoxification period."

James Cohen said that although jokes about the recession have appeared on the Internet for several years, they have gained momentum as economic topics have become more popular recently. James Cohen believes that the surge in this humor is what he calls a "barometer" of the economic atmosphere, and it is obvious that the "atmosphere is not good" now. Max Rosenzweig, a 24-year-old user experience researcher, said: "Especially Generation Z, they always joke that they have never experienced a stable economic environment."