IDC: Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow 2.3% in 2025

According to IDC's tracking report, global smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 1.26 billion units in 2025. This growth will be the second consecutive year of improvement after the 6.1% growth in 2024. In connection with this, the overall market size (TAM) has increased slightly compared with previous forecasts due to the accelerated growth of the Android market, especially the recovery of the Chinese market. The Chinese government's subsidy policy and the pent-up demand for equipment upgrades have reversed the downward trend of previous years. The market is expected to grow in the low single digits throughout the forecast period, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6% from 2024 to 2029, due to the resistance caused by the increase in smartphone penetration, the extension of the replacement cycle, and the growth of the second-hand smartphone market.

"The Android market is expected to grow 40% faster than iOS this year, up 2.5% year-over-year, driven primarily by a 5.6% growth rate in China," said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Trackers. "The Chinese government's subsidy program is expected to primarily benefit the Android market, rather than Apple. Although iOS will decline 1.9% in China this year, globally, iOS shipments are expected to grow 1.8% due to strong growth in the United States (Apple's largest market) and rapid growth in emerging markets such as India and Indonesia, with 18% and 9% growth respectively. Apple's continued promotion of smart technology and the recent launch of the mid-range iPhone 16E are expected to drive demand and keep Apple's average selling price (ASP) high, which will help it capture a 45% market value share in 2025 despite only accounting for 19% of shipments."

"Despite the new 10% tariff on Chinese goods, including smartphones, the U.S. smartphone market is expected to grow 3.3% in 2025," said Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Trackers. "The aging base of devices is about to be replaced, which will have a positive impact on shipments that year. Although the new tariffs will slightly increase the average selling price, most U.S. consumers purchase smartphones through telecommunications channels on an installment basis, often in combination with trade-ins. Therefore, any increase in ASP will have little impact on the purchasing decisions of most consumers."

Despite continued growth in low-end Android phones this year, the global smartphone average selling price (ASP) is expected to increase slightly to $434 in 2025, thanks to continued upgrades in the high-end market. ASP is expected to remain at this level and decline slightly year-on-year throughout the forecast period, falling to $424 in 2029.