Counterpoint: Global smartphone shipments are expected to fall 6% in 2023

According to Counterpoint's latest global smartphone shipment forecast, shipments are expected to fall 6% in 2023 to 1.15 billion units, the lowest level in a decade.

Asia is one of the main obstacles to achieving positive growth as China's economy, which was expected to improve at the beginning of the year, has been hampered by unfavorable factors, while emerging markets across the region are experiencing a deepening recession.

In addition, North America remains a major drag on the global economic recovery, with disappointing first-half performance and a double-digit decline for the full year. Despite a strong job market and easing inflation, consumers are reluctant to upgrade their devices, pushing device replacement rates to record lows in the United States and around the world.

Jeff Fieldhack, director of North American research, said: "There is a decoupling between current economic conditions and consumers' phone purchases. So far this year, upgrade rates have hit record lows for all carriers. But we are watching the fourth quarter with interest because the launch of the iPhone 15 is a window for carriers to acquire high-value customers. With the arrival of a large installed base of iPhone 12, promotional activities will be more aggressive, which will put Apple in a good position."

In China, Apple is well positioned as it continues to gain share in the high-end market.

The growing trend of premium and super-premium phones is developing globally, which benefits brands such as Apple that have a large portfolio in the high-end market.

2023 could mark the beginning of a new era for Apple as a resilient premium player, while a strong performance in the U.S. could help it claim the No. 1 spot in annual global shipments for the first time.