The global mobile market showed six characteristics in 2015

1. Mobile’s contribution to economic and social development continues to increase

The mobile industry is one of the important pillars of economic development, and it will make direct and indirect contributions to economic development. In 2014, the mobile industry contributed 4.0% to the global GDP, and it will reach 4.2% in 2015. At the same time, the development of the mobile industry will also help improve productivity and increase employment. Taking employment rate as an example, in 2014, the mobile industry created 11.4 million jobs, and it will reach 12.2 million in 2015.

2. Market size continues to expand, with the main growth coming from developing regions

In 2014, the number of mobile users worldwide will reach 3.58 billion, and in 2015 it will reach 3.745 billion, with an average annual growth rate of 4.6%. In 2014, mobile development in developed regions has reached saturation, with an average penetration rate of over 80%, and some countries have even higher penetration rates. In contrast, the average penetration rate in developing regions is lower, and there is much room for growth. In 2015, the scale of the mobile market continued to expand, with the main growth momentum coming from developing regions.

3. 2G is dominant, while 3G and 4G are developing rapidly

In 2014, 2G users still dominated the world, and this trend will continue into 2015, but the proportion of 2G users has continued to decline. In 2014, 2G users were still the mainstream in developing regions, but in developed regions, the number of users was less than one-third. By 2015, and even before 2018, 2G users will still dominate in developing regions, and the affordability of tariffs and terminal equipment will become the key factors for users in these regions to upgrade.

Compared with 2G, the number of 3G and 4G users in the world has grown strongly, and users are transitioning from 2G to 3G and 4G. In 2014, the number of LTE connections in the world reached 357 million, accounting for 4.8% of all mobile connections. In 2015, the number of connections will be rewritten to 557 million, accounting for 7.1% of mobile connections. The United States, Japan, and South Korea are still the leaders in the development of global LTE, but in the future, the growth of the Asia-Pacific region cannot be underestimated.

4. Data growth intensifies, and operators increase investment

With the use of more advanced terminals, more and more new services and applications are available to users, many of which are data-hungry, such as video streaming, Internet browsing, and file downloading. In addition, the increase in terminals connected to mobile networks, such as M2M, has also led to a significant increase in data traffic consumption.

In response to the substantial increase in traffic consumption and the increasing number of devices, operators have stepped up their efforts to improve network speed. In 2014, the global average connection speed was 1233Kbps, which will increase to 1857Kbps in 2015, but this speed still cannot meet the growing demand for traffic. To this end, operators have increased their investment and accelerated the deployment of mobile broadband networks. In 2014, the capital operating expenditure of global operators was US$220 billion, which will increase to US$241 billion in 2015.

5. Changes in income structure: new businesses and value-added services become new sources of income

In 2014, global operators' mobile revenue was US$1.239 trillion, and the structure continued to change. Revenue from traditional voice and data services declined, mainly due to market saturation and competition from new market entrants, especially new online information services such as WhatApp and Skype. This change is more prominent in mature markets.

In 2015, the mobile revenue of global operators will increase to 1.288 trillion US dollars. Operators must find new sources of revenue to make up for the decline in traditional revenue. New data services and value-added services will become new revenue growth points.

6. 5G deployment is accelerating, but it will take time to enter the market

In 2014, the global development of 5G technology and standards accelerated, mainly including vision, application requirements, candidate frequency bands, key technical indicators, etc. Although many 5G technology requirements have been formed, such as network function virtualization (NFV), software-defined network (SDN), heterogeneous networks (HetNets), etc., overall, 5G is only in the early stages of development.

In 2015, in addition to the above-mentioned technical and standard issues, the strategic, commercial and regulatory development of the 5G ecosystem, 5G roaming and interconnection, frequency and other issues are still under consideration. In addition, 4G currently accounts for only 5% of global mobile connections. In South Korea, Japan and the United States, where 4G is well developed, the penetration rates are 69%, 46% and 40% respectively, while the penetration rate of 4G in developing countries is only 2%. Therefore, how to balance the development of 4G and 5G and launch 5G at the right time is also a science.

The industry estimates that 5G may not be commercially available until 2020. Some studies have estimated that from 2014 to 2020, global mobile operators will invest $1.7 trillion in 5G network infrastructure construction, which is much more than the investment in 4G networks.

From: Communications Information News