Umeng: Analyzing the reasons behind the decline in the proportion of iOS jailbreaks in China

The jailbreaking rate of iOS devices in China has always been higher than the global average, which is also considered one of the characteristics of the development of Apple's ecosystem in China. As OS versions continue to change, new models continue to appear, and Apple's service system continues to develop, the usage habits of iOS users in China have also changed: in the third quarter of 2012, the overall jailbreaking rate of iOS devices decreased, and new devices were jailbroken less than old devices.

In the "Umeng 2012 Q3 Data Report", we found that the overall jailbreak rate of iOS devices has decreased, from 51.0% in July 2011 to 42.4% in September 2012, among which the jailbreak rate of iPads is 39.8% and that of iPhones is 43.8%. In addition, the jailbreak rate of newer devices, including iPhone 4S, iPad 2 and The New iPad, is lower than that of older devices. This data has attracted the interest of industry insiders at home and abroad.

In this regard, we conducted an in-depth analysis of the data from July to September 2012. In fact, the jailbreak rate of iOS devices has been relatively stable not only in September 2012, but also in July and August 2012. In July 2012, the jailbreak rate of iOS devices was 42.4%, and in August 2012, this rate was 44.0%. The pattern of the jailbreak rate of each device is also consistent with that in September: the jailbreak rate of newer devices is obviously lower. In other words, the trend of the jailbreak rate decline has already formed before the release of iOS 6.

So, what is the reason for the decline in the jailbreak rate? There are many reasons behind the numerical facts. By observing the jailbreak data trends of various iOS devices and OS versions, we believe that there are several possibilities:

First, the new iOS devices and new versions have enhanced their technical protection against cracking, making it increasingly difficult to jailbreak the new versions perfectly. Apple is working hard to improve its service system. Second, the speed of domestic official products to market has gradually increased, and the channels are unblocked, which has reduced the demand for parallel imports by users, and thus reduced the number of cases where parallel imports are already "jailbroken". The jailbreaking rate of new devices is lower than that of old devices, partly due to this reason. Third, since November 2011, the Chinese APP STORE has accepted RMB credit card payments and recharges, providing a channel for regular purchases. At the same time, more and more APPs use in-app payment, which has also weakened the demand for jailbreaking by users.

In general, Apple is improving its service system in hardware, software, business and other aspects, and mainstream iOS users in China are gradually adapting to this system. This background has contributed to the decline in the proportion of jailbroken iOS devices in China. At present, iOS 6, which has no perfect jailbreak, is gradually occupying the market, and the iOS ecosystem is still changing. I believe that when the perfect jailbreak of iOS 6 appears, this set of data related to iOS jailbreaking in China will be more worthy of observation. Will the proportion of jailbreaking continue to rise or fall in the future? Umeng will continue to pay attention and bring relevant data analysis as soon as possible.