Why did the price of mutton rise in 2019? The reason why the price of mutton rose in the second half of this year

The overall price of meat this year is on a rapid rise, especially the continuous increase in pork prices, which has driven other meats to follow suit. Mutton and pork are both meat products and are also substitutes for pork. When the price of one type of meat increases, it will cause the prices of other meat products to rise. Therefore, the increase in mutton prices is understandable.

Why did the price of mutton increase in 2019?

First, the rise in pork prices this year has led to a sharp increase in mutton prices.

As we all know, due to the African swine fever epidemic, the number of live pigs in stock this year has tended to decline. According to relevant statistics, the number of live pigs in the country has dropped by about one-third, and some southern provinces are even more seriously short of pigs. Therefore, with the sharp decline in the number of live pigs, the price of pork has risen in the second half of the year, and the current price of pork is more than 23 yuan per catty.

Due to the obvious increase in pork prices, many residents have become more rational when choosing pork. Since mutton has a delicate texture and good taste, many people choose mutton. Therefore, the price of mutton has risen, and it has risen rapidly.

Second, it is the peak season for mutton, so the price increase of mutton is reasonable.

After entering autumn, the weather has become cooler. People also say that they should "put on weight in autumn" to cope with the winter tonic, and eating mutton can warm the body. Therefore, many people eat mutton and drink mutton soup during this season. Now is also the traditional peak season for mutton demand. As the weather gets colder, more people will eat mutton. Therefore, the price of mutton will continue to rise.

Third, mutton sheep are not like live pigs. They cannot be compared with live pigs in terms of breeding cycle or fattening weight. It is precisely because the output of mutton is reduced that "scarcity makes things valuable."

Although the number of mutton sheep raised this year is higher than last year, mutton is scarce overall this year, because the number of mutton sheep raised in my country is far from meeting consumption needs, so my country needs to import mutton. In terms of breeding cycle and fattening, mutton sheep cannot be compared with pigs, so the scarcity of mutton production caused by the reduction in the number of mutton sheep has led to the rise in mutton prices.

Therefore:

The current rise in mutton prices is inevitable, as the African swine fever has caused a shortage of pork this year. With the shortage of pork, it is normal for some mutton to replace pork, and now the number of mutton in my country is also declining. Therefore, under these two factors, the price of mutton has risen. So some people are not eating mutton, but the price of mutton has become more expensive, so some people eat less.

Will the price of mutton continue to rise in winter?

At present, the price of mutton in my country is rising in sync with pork. Under normal circumstances, the price of mutton is comparable to that of beef. The cost of raising sheep and cattle is higher than that of pigs, and the cycle is longer, so relatively fewer people raise them. However, the pig-raising cycle is short, the market demand is large, and the demand is relatively stable all year round, so the price is relatively low. Now that lean pork is implicated, the price has generally risen sharply. The price of beef and mutton has exceeded 40 yuan per catty across the country, and has reached 50 yuan per catty in some areas. If we enter winter, the price of mutton will inevitably rise. What do you think?

Future price trend of mutton

Where there is an increase, there is a decrease. This is the law of the market. At present, the prices of various meats, including mutton, have increased. Judging from the current market situation, macroeconomic regulation is already playing a role.

First, judging from market performance, pig prices and pork prices have gradually stabilized in recent days. During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, meat prices not only did not rise, but also fell slightly.

Second, from the perspective of regulatory measures, they are already taking effect, especially during the two festivals, when the country released a large amount of frozen pork, beef and mutton to stabilize market prices. Third, from the perspective of long-term measures, a large number of policies to support pig farming have been introduced, and it is expected that there will be growth in the first half of next year. The period from now to the Spring Festival may be the "toughest" period, but the high price period will soon pass.