IDC: AR/VR headset shipments to grow 12.8% in the third quarter of 2024

According to the latest data from IDC, after two quarters of decline, global AR/VR headset shipments finally resumed growth, increasing by 12.8% in the third quarter of 2024. The growth was mainly driven by Meta.

Of the top five, Meta led with 70.8% market share, with sales down 22.7% year-over-year in the third quarter as Quest 2 began to phase out. It took a few quarters, but Quest 3 is finally starting to gain a foothold, driven by a wider selection of content and promotions like Prime Day. Sony's PSVR 2 ranked second (6.7% market share) as it gained traction with PC gamers and benefited from promotions. Apple, ByteDance, and XREAL rounded out the top five.

Although these five companies account for more than 90% of the market share, questions remain about the prospects of some of them.

The versatility of mixed reality headsets like the Quest 3 has made products in this category stand out, and can even replace augmented reality headsets under the right conditions. As a result, IDC predicts that mixed reality headsets will grow 21.7% in 2025 to reach 7.7 million units shipped and will continue to be the largest category going forward. In addition to mixed reality, extended reality devices that provide simple heads-up displays or content mirroring are expected to become the next largest category, and competition is expected to intensify over the next 18 months.

Android XR and a host of startups and established players like Meta will help the XR headset category more than double in size by 2025 and grow at a compound annual growth rate of 85.7% through the end of 2028. This category of headsets will remain the second largest category and will primarily tether to a smartphone or other computing device. Finally, true AR headsets, like Meta's Orion, will take time to gain traction, as these headsets require a high level of sophistication, as well as battery and display technologies that have not yet scaled. As a result, IDC predicts this category will remain a niche market, growing from 59,000 units in 2024 to 377,000 units in 2028.