China Second-hand Goods Industry Association: Research report on the value retention rate of second-hand mobile phones in the first quarter of 2023

In the second-hand market, the trading popularity of 4G mobile phones has slightly rebounded, and the recycling popularity of large-screen iPhones has increased. In terms of brands, the overall ranking has not changed, and Apple iPhone transaction volume is still the first. The release of Huawei's new P series has driven the popularity of new models in the second-hand market. Looking at the mobile phone market this quarter, consumers' choices for purchasing mobile phones have become more diverse. With the arrival of the "Silver Fourth", brand manufacturers have maintained an "acceleration" in the launch of new products. For example, models such as the real GT Neo5 SE, vivo X Flod2, and Xiaomi 13 Ultra have been scheduled for April, which also means that the competition among manufacturers will be more intense in the future.

1. New and old market trends 5G transaction volume remains stable, and second-hand main models are collectively reduced in price

In recent years, the domestic 5G commercialization process has been accelerating, and 5G mobile phones have also achieved a good scale in the market.

According to the report of China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the number of mobile users in my country has reached 1.68 billion, and the number of 5G mobile users in my country has exceeded 542 million, with a penetration rate of 32.2%. Combining the data released by China Academy of Information and Communications Technology and Daily Interactive, the market share of 5G mobile phones in the smartphone market has stabilized.

The same is true for the second-hand market. According to the mobile phone market data of Zhuanzhuan Group in Q1, 5G mobile phones accounted for 52.44% of the total transaction volume, accounting for more than half of the transaction volume for three consecutive quarters, with a stable overall performance.

In terms of brands, the transaction volume ranking remained unchanged compared with the previous quarter, with Apple taking the lead again. Specifically, iPhone transaction volume accounted for 33.23%, a slight decrease of 0.11% from the previous quarter. Xiaomi is still the number one domestic brand, followed by Huawei, vivo, OPPO (including OnePlus), and Honor. Compared with Q4 2022, when only Apple and Huawei saw an increase in transaction volume, the trend in Q1 2023 was the opposite, with domestic mobile phones such as vivo, OPPO, and Honor all seeing an increase in transaction volume.

Analysts from Zhuanzhuan Group’s data department believe that, considering the frequency of new phone launches in the market, the diversified product layout of domestic mobile phones is an important factor driving the increase in transaction volume of second-hand domestic mobile phones.

In terms of price, the prices of iPhone and domestic main models have declined overall. For example, the prices of Huawei's hot-selling models have continued to decline. Among them, the average selling price of the 99 new 8G+256G version of Huawei Mate 40 Pro + in the second-hand market in March was reduced by about 870 yuan compared with January.

In this regard, analysts from Zhuanzhuan Group’s data department said that the launch of a number of mid-to-high-end flagship models in the first quarter accelerated the decline in prices of second-hand high-end mobile phones.

2. Apple iPhone 4G market recovers, iPhone14 Pro price drops by more than 800 yuan

Although Apple did not release any new phones in the first quarter, discussions about it in both new and old markets remain heated.

In the new phone market, Apple launched new color schemes for the iPhone 14/14 Plus, but they were sold out as soon as they went on sale; although the Pro version was relatively hot-selling, its price began to loosen after the new phone bonus period.

Affected by the price reduction of new phones, the prices of Apple iPhones in the second-hand market have generally dropped.

According to the mobile phone market of Zhuanzhuan Group in Q1, the price reduction of most iPhone models is within 300 yuan, among which the 99 new 64G version of iPhone SE (third generation) has the lowest price reduction, only in single digits. The higher-end Pro models of iPhone have seen significant price reductions, with the iPhone14 Pro Max seeing the largest price reduction. The average selling price of its 99 new 128G version in the second-hand market in March dropped by about 886 yuan compared with January, the iPhone14 Pro dropped by about 852 yuan, and the iPhone13Pro/Pro Max also dropped by 390 yuan and 445 yuan respectively.

In this regard, analysts from Zhuanzhuan Group's data department believe that, on the one hand, as high-end models become more and more abundant on the market, consumers have more options. Especially in the first quarter, Apple's old rival Huawei released high-end flagship models and folding screen phones. On the other hand, after nearly half a year of hot sales, the iPhone14 Pro series has sufficient market supply, and prices have naturally "cooled down."

Judging from the ranking of the list, iPhone continues to dominate the list. All models on the recycling list, total transaction volume, and search list are iPhones. Among them, iPhone11 has dominated the list for 6 consecutive quarters, and also ranks first in the C2B, B2C, and search lists.

The search popularity for 5G mobile phones remains high, and the top 10 mobile phone models searched for have not changed compared to the previous quarter.

It is worth noting that the Q1 Zhuanzhuan Group mobile phone market data shows that in the list of top 10 models in terms of transaction volume, the number of 5G iPhones on the list has dropped from 6 in the previous quarter to 5, and 4G and 5G mobile phones have returned to a 50-50 situation.

Specifically, the popularity of 4G iPhone has rebounded slightly, with the rankings of iPhone XR and iPhone Xs Max rising one place respectively, and iPhone11 Pro Max newly entering the list, ranking ninth; among 5G iPhones, iPhone13 Pro Max dropped from fourth place in Q4 2022 to seventh place in Q1 2023, and iPhone13 Pro dropped out of the list.

3. Domestic mobile phone market Xiaomi is still the first domestic mobile phone, Huawei P series is hot selling

As the temperature warms up in spring, the frequency of new product launches by domestic mobile phone brands is also accelerating.

In the new phone market, vivo's iQOO and Honor launched the thousand-yuan performance phones iQOO Z7 and Honor Play7T respectively. In the high-end market, Honor Magic5, OPPO Find X6 series, Huawei P60 series, and Mate X3 were launched one after another. In addition, there are mid-range flagships such as Redmi Note12 Turbo. The entire mobile phone market is very lively. Among them, Huawei's MateX3 folding screen mobile phone has attracted a lot of attention.

In the second-hand market, the Q1 Zhuanzhuan Group mobile phone market shows that Xiaomi (including Redmi) has been ranked first in the second-hand market for eight consecutive quarters, accounting for 16.11%; Huawei ranks second among domestic mobile phones, accounting for 14.61%. Vivo ranks third among domestic brands with 13.09%, and is the brand with the largest month-on-month growth, with an increase of 0.73%; OPPO (including OnePlus) accounts for 10.63% of the transaction volume, ranking second in month-on-month growth; Honor still ranks fifth among domestic brands, accounting for 7.06%.

In terms of popular models, Huawei's overall performance is more eye-catching thanks to the release of the P60 series. According to the Q1 Zhuanzhuan Group mobile phone market, Huawei occupies half of the list of the top 10 second-hand domestic mobile phone transaction volumes, and the P series models are relatively popular. Among them, Huawei P30's ranking rose from 7th in Q4 2022 to 5th in Q1 2023. Huawei P40 is newly listed and ranks last on the list.

Xiaomi has 3 mobile phones on the list, the Redmi K40 Enhanced Edition dropped out of the top ten, the Xiaomi 11 still ranked third, and the trading popularity of the Redmi K40 and Xiaomi 8 increased. OPPO A5 created a sales myth again, topping the domestic mobile phone transaction list and recycling list for several consecutive quarters.

In terms of price, like the iPhone, the launch of a large number of new phones has caused the prices of domestic main models in the second-hand market to generally fall, and the higher the configuration of the model, the greater the price reduction. Taking the 99 new OPPO Reno9 series as an example, by comparing the prices in March and January, the price of Reno9 has dropped by only 176 yuan, while the higher-configured Reno9 Pro/Pro + have dropped by 374 yuan and 408 yuan respectively.

Judging from the best-selling models of various companies: consumers prefer Huawei's high-end flagship. Among them, Huawei's Mate and P series are popular, and Huawei's Mate 40 Pro tops the list; Xiaomi's digital series and Redmi series each account for half. Most of the models on the list of Honor, OPPO, and vivo are popular mid-to-low-end products. Taking OPPO as an example, the OPPO A series occupies 5 seats in the Top 10 model list, and the mid-to-low-end product line is more popular; the OPPO R series occupies 4 seats, the most in the list; OnePlus is on the list for the first time, and OnePlus Ace Pro ranks sixth. Vivo's mid-performance model iQOO continues to dominate the list, with as many as 8 models on the list.

It is not difficult to see that in addition to Huawei and Xiaomi, OPPO and vivo's performance in the high-end market is also more attractive.

IV. 5G and recycling market trends The older the 5G iPhone, the more popular it is. The recycling volume of large-screen iPhones increases

5G mobile phones have entered a growth bottleneck period. According to the mobile phone market data of Zhuanzhuan Group in Q1, 5G mobile phone transactions still accounted for more than half, reaching 53.29%, but fell by 0.85% from the previous quarter and increased by 18.87% year-on-year.

Apple iPhone continues to lead the 5G market, with 7 models on the list. Among them, iPhone12 and iPhone13 ranked first and second. The rankings of the other three iPhone12s have also improved. The iPhone12 Pro Max rose from 4th in Q4 2022 to 3rd in Q1 2023, and the iPhone12 Pro rose from 6th in Q4 2022 to 4th in Q1 2023. Domestic mobile phones occupy 3 seats, and the models on the list are Huawei Mate 40Pro, Xiaomi 11 and Redmi K40. Redmi K40 returned to the list, replacing Huawei Mate30 Pro on the list last quarter, ranking 10th.

Judging from the performance of various cities, Shenzhen has topped the list for 8 consecutive quarters. Among the top 5 cities, except for users in Beijing who love iPhone13 Pro Max, residents in Shenzhen, Chongqing, Guangzhou, and Chengdu still prefer iPhone12 and iPhone13.

Following the trend of older standard models becoming more popular last quarter, the Pro versions of older iPhones are also showing the same trend, becoming more popular the older they are. Consumers are becoming more rational when purchasing devices and are no longer overly pursuing the latest versions of models.

In addition, not only does Apple’s iPhone maintain high popularity in the 5G field, the recycling popularity of 5G iPhones is also continuing to grow.

According to the mobile phone market data of Zhuanzhuan Group in Q1, 5G iPhones accounted for more than half of the top 10 models of C2B recycling services. Month-on-month, the rankings of iPhone 11, iPhone 13, and iPhone 12 remained unchanged in the top three. However, year-on-year, the ranking of iPhone 13 rose rapidly, from 12th in Q1 2022 to 2nd in Q1 2023.

Judging from the second half of the list, the number of large-screen mobile phones entering the recycling list has increased, and iPhone14 Pro Max has entered the list for the first time.

Judging from the ranking, the recycling popularity of 4G iPhone is not inferior to that of 5G iPhone. iPhone11 has topped the C2B recycling list for 6 consecutive quarters; iPhone8 Plus has risen in ranking from 8th in Q4 2022 to 6th in Q1 2023.

In this regard, analysts from Zhuanzhuan Group's data department believe that the decline in new phone prices has stimulated the desire of some Apple fans to change their phones, leading to an increase in the recycling volume of old iPhones. In addition, many users are attracted by the higher recycling value of large-screen iPhones and prefer Zhuanzhuan recycling services that offer suitable prices and guaranteed services.

5. Market Outlook: Folding screens enter the era of thinness and lightness, and market competition will intensify

Compared with the previous quarter, the general decline in prices has also caused the value retention rate of old models to decline simultaneously. Overall, the value retention rate of the iPhone14 Pro series is still excellent.

According to the mobile phone market of Zhuanzhuan Group in Q1, iPhone14 Pro Max and iPhone14 Pro ranked first and second in the value retention rate list, but the value retention rates have dropped to 76.8% and 76.1% respectively. Vivo X90 Pro + ranked third with a value retention rate of 73.6%. Consistent with the forecast of analysts from Zhuanzhuan Group's data department, the OPPO Find N2 series, which was released last year, has emerged in the second-hand market. On the value retention rate list, this model ranked fourth with a value retention rate of 73.3%.

With the release of Huawei's new foldable screen mobile phone, the popularity of the foldable screen mobile phone category has increased.

In the new phone market, consumers' desire for foldable phones has increased. The "2023 China Foldable Phone Market Insight Report" released by iResearch Consulting shows that more than 90% of users prefer foldable phones in the future; it is expected that by 2025, the domestic shipment of foldable smartphones will reach 16 million units.

In the second-hand market, the mobile phone market of Zhuanzhuan Group in Q1 showed that the prices of foldable screen mobile phones generally fell, with the exception of Samsung Galaxy Z Fold3, whose 99 new 12G+256G version rose by 27 yuan. Huawei Mate X2 had the largest drop, with its 99 new 8G+256G version selling for an average price of 906 yuan lower in March than in January; Huawei P50 Pocket had the smallest drop, at only 25 yuan.

Foldable screen phones have gradually become the representative of high-end models of Android brands. In the second quarter, vivo's foldable screen also ushered in an update, and consumers will have more choices. In the first quarter, Huawei's new foldable screen phone Mate X3 accelerated the "light and thin era" of foldable screen phones and also affected the price of Huawei's new foldable screen phone.

Recently, market research firm IDC predicted in a report that the average selling price of foldable screen phones will continue to decline, and will drop by 6.8% year-on-year this year. At the same time, judging from the current price trend of second-hand foldable screen models, there is still a lot of room for premium for foldable screen phones. With the price reduction of new products, consumers will also get higher cost-effectiveness when purchasing second-hand foldable screen models in the second-hand market. It can be foreseen that with the arrival of the mid-year promotion season in the second quarter, competition will become more intense not only in foldable screen phones, but also in the entire mobile phone market.