The Zettabyte Era: Trends and Analysis Report

According to the latest Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) full forecast, by 2021, global IP traffic will almost triple, with overall IP traffic increasing to 278EB per month, a compound annual growth rate of 24%.

Total Internet traffic has experienced tremendous growth over the past 20 years. By 2016, global Internet traffic exceeded 20,000GBps!

Trend 1: Continued changes in devices and connections

By 2021, the personal share of the total number of devices (including fixed and mobile) will reach 71%, while the enterprise share will account for the remaining 29%. The personal share will grow at a slightly lower rate (8.7% CAGR) than the enterprise category (12.2% CAGR). And by 2021, 75% of IP traffic and 76% of personal Internet traffic will come from non-PC devices.

Trend 2: Using IPv6 to realize the Internet of Everything

By 2021, globally, forecasts estimate that if 60% of IPv6-capable devices are actively connected to IPv6 networks, IPv6 traffic will reach 87EB/month, or 37% of Internet traffic. Network operators, content providers, and end users seeking the scalability and performance benefits of IPv6 and supporting the Internet of Everything (LoE) believe that there is a high probability that a large portion of Internet traffic will be generated by IPv6 networks.

Trend 3: M2M applications in many industries accelerate the development of the Internet of Everything

VNI predicts that by 2021, connected home applications (such as home automation, home security and video surveillance, connected white goods, and tracking applications) will account for 46% or nearly half of the total M2M connections, and M2M will be used in every aspect of our lives. By 2021, no one person in the world will have 1.75 M2M connections.

Trend 4: Application traffic growth

The total volume of all forms of IP video (including Internet video, IP VoD, video files exchanged via file sharing, video streaming games, and video conferencing) will continue to account for between 80% and 90% of all IP traffic. By 2021, IP video will account for 82% of global traffic.

Trend 5: Cord Cutting Analysis

Cisco VNI predicts that, on average, households that still use linear TV will generate significantly less traffic from a traffic perspective than households that have “cut the cord” and rely on Internet video.

Cord cutting: Refers to the trend whereby traditional and pay TV viewing is being replaced by alternative modes of video viewing, such as online and mobile video, delivered to viewers via fixed and mobile internet connections.

Trend 6: Security Analysis

Nearly a quarter of organizations that were attacked lost business opportunities. Forty percent of respondents said the losses were huge. One-fifth of organizations lost customers due to attacks, and nearly 30% of organizations suffered revenue losses. The survey shows that the number of attacks on the global Internet has increased as traffic speeds have increased.

Trend 7: Impact of Speed Increase on Traffic Growth

Broadband speed is a key element of IP traffic. Improvements in broadband speed lead to greater consumption and use of high-bandwidth content and applications. Global average broadband speeds continue to increase, with speeds set to nearly double between 2016 and 2021.

Trend 8: Mobile (WiFi) continues to grow strongly

VNI predicts that the number of public WiFi hotspots will increase sixfold from 94 million in 2016 to 541.6 million by 2021. Hotels, cafes and restaurants will have the largest number of hotspots worldwide by 2021.

Trend 9: Traffic pattern analysis (peak hours versus normal hours, as well as the increase in CDNs and software-defined wide area networks [SD-WAN])

Global peak-hour Internet usage will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 35% from 2016 to 2021, compared with 26% for average-hour Internet traffic. By 2021, CDNs will account for 71% of total Internet traffic, up from 52% in 2016.