Canalys: Tablets are expected to surpass computer shipments by 50% in 2014

According to the latest report released by market research company Canalys, tablet computers will account for more than 50% of all computer shipments in the world in 2014. Among them, the shipment of Android tablet computers will reach 185 million units, accounting for 65% of all tablet computer shipments, and Samsung ranks first among all Android tablet computer manufacturers.

Tablet sales have been growing faster than traditional PCs for a long time, and according to a Canalys report, the sales ratio of tablets to PCs is about to reach an inflection point, and tablets will become the de facto "personal computers." Canalys predicts that global tablet shipments will reach 285 million units in 2014, and will further increase to 396 million units by 2017. In February 2013, Canalys said that tablets accounted for 1/3 of all computer shipments. For the full year of 2013, the company predicted that tablet shipments would reach 182.5 million units, accounting for 37% of all computer shipments. Canalys has now raised its forecast for this proportion to 40%.

According to Canalys, Apple will remain the world's largest tablet computer manufacturer in 2014, with a shipment share of 30%. In terms of profits, Apple is in an absolute leading position.

Canalys believes that for Apple, profit is more important than market share. Tim Coulling, senior analyst at Canalys, said: "Apple is one of the few companies that has made money from the rise of tablet computers. Excellent products have attracted high-value consumers. For Apple, ensuring high profitability and revenue growth for the entire ecosystem is more important than market share."

Although Apple was the pioneer in the tablet market, Android is now in the lead. The situation in the tablet market is similar to that of smartphones. Multiple Android manufacturers have launched products at different price points, thus attracting different consumer groups.

Canalys also predicts that Microsoft's ( 37.64 , 0.00 , 0.00% ) share of the global tablet market will be 5% in 2014. The report said: "To strengthen its position, Microsoft must promote application development." Developers will only focus on platforms where users are active. The acquisition of Nokia's ( 8.1 , 0.00 , 0.00% ) device business will make Microsoft a "complete smart mobile device manufacturer", which will help drive market share growth. Canalys believes that Microsoft should avoid fragmentation of the ecosystem, and "the key first step is to solve the coexistence problem of Windows Phone and Windows RT, because using three operating systems to develop the smart device market confuses developers and users."

This trend will have a multi-faceted impact on the computer market. Canalys noted that new tablets such as the iPad Air and the iPad mini with Retina display will help Apple increase its market share and strengthen the company's market position in the fourth quarter. Other manufacturers will see their sales decline. However, in the long run, Apple's market share will decline as the company focuses on high-margin products. "Apple will make it a priority to maintain its gross margin, so its share in the PC market will continue to decline. This decline is inevitable given its business model," said Kulin.

At present, this trend has already appeared in some markets. Canalys pointed out that in the fourth quarter of this year, Samsung's market share in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) will surpass Apple. In the future, Apple's market share in other markets will also be surpassed by competitors. According to Canalys data, Samsung accounted for 27% of global tablet sales in the third quarter of this year. Earlier this month, data from market research firm JD Power showed that Samsung's share of the tablet market has surpassed Apple.

In the long run, Canalys believes that price competition among multiple manufacturers will lead to more fragmentation. James Wang, an analyst at Canalys in Shanghai, said: "Due to the cost and time advantages brought by the Chinese supply chain, some small brands have begun to grab market share in the tablet computer market. Nextbook in the United States, and Onda and Teclast in China have surpassed some international first-tier manufacturers in tablet computer shipments in their home countries. The rise of small brands proves that every country and region has a demand for entry-level Android tablet computers."

He believes that although Acer, Asus, HP and Lenovo have all launched entry-level products priced below $150, starting a price war, it is still difficult to compete with smaller local manufacturers.

On the other hand, market fragmentation will also drive integration. Manufacturers such as BlackBerry and Barnes & Noble have begun to rethink their tablet strategies. Canalys predicts that the tablet market will see a series of acquisitions, mergers and failures in 2014. PC manufacturers of all sizes will find it difficult to continue to maintain their desktop and notebook businesses on the one hand, while trying to develop the tablet market, which has huge sales but limited value on the other.