IDC: Global smartphone shipments will reach 1.24 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%

According to the latest report from IDC, global smartphone shipments are expected to grow 6.2% year-on-year to 1.24 billion units in 2024. This strong growth is driven by pent-up demand for device upgrades after two years of sharp declines. Despite a strong rebound in 2024, growth is expected to slow to low single digits from 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% from 2023 to 2028. Influencing factors include increased smartphone penetration, longer update cycles, and unfavorable factors from the rapidly growing second-hand smartphone market.

“While GenAI remains a hot topic and top priority for many vendors, it has yet to have a significant impact on demand and drive early upgrades,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Trackers. “While we continue to believe GenAI will revolutionize the user experience in the coming years, more investment is needed to increase consumer awareness and introduce ‘must have’ features that drive consumers to stores, creating the super loop everyone is waiting for. For now, we expect GenAI smartphones to take their place among premium flagship devices and continue to drop in price, rapidly growing to 70% of the smartphone market by 2028.”

Android's annual growth rate of 7.6% in the Asia Pacific, Latin America, Middle East, Africa and China markets, mainly concentrated on low-end devices, is crucial to this year's 6.2% growth. In contrast, iOS is expected to achieve modest growth (0.4%) in 2024. Despite record performance in emerging markets such as India, Apple faces challenges in large markets such as China, the United States and Europe. Looking ahead to 2025, the annual growth rate of the iOS platform will reach 3.1%, exceeding the 1.7% growth rate of the Android platform in the same period.

"Despite sluggish market sales, new foldable phone models continue to grab headlines," said Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Trackers. "In the third quarter, foldable phone sales fell 7.4% despite new model launches from most of the world's leading vendors. Foldable devices will grow 10.5% in 2024 and maintain double-digit growth through 2028, for a five-year CAGR of 15.9%. Growth is slowing as Chinese vendors refocus and refocus their focus and investments on GenAI smartphones. Concerns about durability and a lack of unique use cases are also holding back growth."