IDC: Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow 4% in 2024

According to IDC's Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, global smartphone shipments are expected to grow 4.0% year-over-year to 1.21 billion units in 2024. The overall recovery in growth in 2024 is adding momentum as consumer demand slowly rebounds from the slump of the past few years. The recovery is expected to continue through 2025, with growth of 2.3%, followed by low single-digit growth for the rest of the forecast period, for a five-year CAGR of 2.3%.

Nabila Popal, research director of IDC's worldwide tracking team, said: "While the overall market will see a relatively strong recovery this year, with almost all regions achieving 4% growth, it is worth noting that most of the growth will be driven by Android, which is expected to grow significantly faster (4.8%) than iOS (Apple) at 0.7%. Android's rapid growth is coming off a difficult two years, while iOS's slowdown is due to strong growth in 2023 and increasing competition in China that has weakened its growth potential. However, if Apple takes strong action around its iPhone's AI strategy and demonstrates clear use cases, it could accelerate Apple's growth and change iPhone demand trends, especially in China. Regardless of the outcome, the good news is that the smartphone market has finally gotten out of the woods and the path to recovery is clearly visible."

Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Trackers, said: "5G smartphones continue to drive the market, with growth of nearly 16% through 2024 as 5G becomes more widespread across all regions and markets. 5G smartphones will grow 16% in 2024 and double-digit growth will be achieved in 2025 (+13.2%), with 5G market share climbing from 67.2% in 2024 to 74.4% in 2025. As 5G becomes saturated in most developed markets, the growth of 5G in emerging markets will play a central role in driving shipments throughout the forecast period. The total smartphone market will grow at a CAGR of 2.3% from 2024 to 2028, while 5G shipments will achieve an impressive growth rate of 9.1% during the same period."