TrendForce: Research predicts that foldable phone shipments will reach 17.8 million units in 2024, accounting for only 1.5% of the smartphone market

According to TrendForce research estimates, the shipment volume of foldable phones in 2024 will be approximately 17.8 million units, accounting for only about 1.5% of the smartphone market. As the problems of high repair rate and high selling price remain to be solved, it is expected that the share will have a chance to reach 4.8% by 2028.

Samsung, as a pioneer in foldable phones, first entered the market and occupied more than 80% of the market share in 2022. From 2023 to 2024, it began to face the battle to defend its market share from 60% to 50% as many smartphone brands joined the competition. Huawei, an important player in foldable phones this year, launched the 4G eye-catching small folding Pocket S in 2023. Its excellent market sales performance pushed Huawei's foldable phone market share to break through double digits for the first time in 2023, reaching 12%. In 2024, Huawei launched upgraded 5G foldable phones, including Mate X5 and Pocket 2. It is expected that in the third quarter of this year, Huawei will launch the first three-fold phone on the market, which will not only bring a new appearance breakthrough to the foldable phone market, but also represent a technological upgrade. It is estimated that Huawei's foldable phone market share this year is expected to be close to 30%.

In terms of pricing, Motorola and Nubia will perform well in the foldable phone market in 2024

Other brands such as Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo have limited growth in foldable phones this year, with shipments below 1 million units. Motorola has performed well, launching the Razr 40 and Razr 40 Ultra in the middle of this year, and successfully expanding its market share with a price strategy of RMB 3,999 to 5,699. This year's shipments have the opportunity to exceed 1 million units, with a market share of about 6%.

One of the keys to attracting consumers' attention to foldable phones is pricing, so all brands are committed to improving display performance and reducing creases, while reducing the cost of the entire device. It is worth noting that the Chinese brand Nubia launched the Nubia Flip in the Japanese market this year, with a relatively low price of US$499. In addition to the Japanese and Chinese markets, pre-sales have also been launched in various places, and sales are expected to be good. TrendForce further learned that Nubia Flip components may use hinges from China's own suppliers, combined with Foldable OLED panels from Chinese panel manufacturers, which will significantly reduce the cost of the entire device, thereby achieving the goal of lowering the price.

At the same time, rumors that Apple is about to join the foldable phone battle have not diminished, but TrendForce has learned that Apple is still evaluating the specifications and performance of various components, and has strict requirements for creases and reliability. There is still some distance to go before a clear development plan and follow-up planning. The earliest possible time will be after 2027. If Apple joins the foldable phone market in the future, then the overall mobile phone market will have more obvious changes.