IDC: Global smartphone shipments to grow 7% to 1.22 billion units in 2024, with Chinese brands occupying eight of the top ten spots in the world

Mobile phone market: Global competition and domestic rise

Let’s first talk about the mobile phone market, which has the most intense competition.

In the past few years, the domestic and international mobile phone markets gave people the feeling that "the overall environment is very bad". Mobile phone manufacturers are competing fiercely, but the frequency of people changing phones is getting lower and lower. In the past, we might consider changing phones once or two, but now we would like to use them for three or four years.

CIRP: Average iPhone replacement cycle for iPhone users

Once the frequency of phone replacement decreases, the market will be affected. For example, in 2022 and 2023, smartphone shipments fell by 11.3% and 3.2% year-on-year, directly breaking the lowest annual shipments since 2013. Mobile phone manufacturers are having a hard time.

But by 2024, the global smartphone market had swept away the gloom of the previous two years, with shipments increasing by 7% to 1.22 billion units.

The reason why the mobile phone market has been able to pick up is mainly because the comprehensive configuration of mobile phones has been greatly improved this year. At the same time, channels have begun to distribute them on a large scale, and the demand for replacement has been further released. In addition, as 5G has been popularized in more regions, people in emerging markets are also more willing to replace their mobile phones.

Apple still holds the top spot firmly. Although iPhone shipments fell by 1% to 225.9 million units last year, it has managed to overcome the challenges in the Chinese market by opening up new markets and maintaining stable output in North America and Europe.

As for Samsung, it ranked second. Last year, like Apple, its total shipments exceeded 200 million units, but it also fell by 1% compared with the previous year.

In my opinion, at this stage, Apple and Samsung are somewhat like squeezing toothpaste and living off their old capital. Every upgrade of their new phones seems to be a minor one, and the update is not that big. If this trend continues, maybe in a few years, domestic manufacturers will be able to completely beat these two giants on the beach.

If we talk about the biggest dark horse in 2024, it must be Xiaomi. Xiaomi's shipments last year reached 168.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, and it suddenly ranked among the top three in the world. I believe that during the Chinese New Year, Lei Jun's smile must be brighter than the taillights of Xiaomi SU7~

The reason why Xiaomi has achieved such good results is that, on the one hand, it sells so well in the domestic market. In the domestic market alone, the shipment growth rate has soared to 42%; on the other hand, its deep cultivation in Southeast Asia in recent years has also yielded results, and now it has achieved a 16% market share.

Xiaomi is engaged in fierce price wars at home and promoting cost-effectiveness abroad, and is madly distributing products through offline channels. It has adopted this strategy to dominate its competitors . Samsung, which also sells mid- and low-end models, will face Xiaomi as a strong rival overseas next.

Also, can you believe that Transsion, a Chinese company that has little "presence" in China but is known as the "King of African Mobile Phones" abroad, has quietly achieved the fourth place in the world with shipments of 106.7 million units, selling millions more than OPPO, which ranks fifth.

I also took the time to search. In addition to Africa, which is the largest base, Transsion has also opened up a niche in South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. It is simply a model of making money quietly. You know what, sometimes choosing the right track is more important than blindly working hard.

Of course, to be able to achieve this, they must have real skills, and their secret is "ignoring the internal circulation of parameters and focusing on the pain points of basic needs." Things like multi-SIM cards and multi-standby, ultra-large capacity batteries, and ultra-high volume speakers are basic needs for people there, and Transsion has provided them all.

In other words, it makes whatever kind of mobile phones the locals need, and can be called the "Wuling in the mobile phone circle."

To be honest, Lenovo’s performance last year was a bit beyond my expectations, although its domestic market share was less than 2% and it did not even make it into the top five list.

But its performance in the international market is outstanding. In the US market, Lenovo ranks third with a 12% share, second only to Apple and Samsung; it ranks second in the Latin American market; third in the Mexican market; and successfully entered the fourth place in the Western European market; and even ranked among the top five in the French market.

Such outstanding performance overseas has directly allowed Lenovo to take the eighth place in the global mobile phone market share. It seems that Lenovo's decision to spend US$2.91 billion to acquire Motorola was a very correct one. Many manufacturers are still wondering how to go overseas, but Lenovo has done it with just a little money.

Let me put it this way, looking around, among the top ten mobile phone brands in the global mobile phone market last year, except for Apple and Samsung, the other eight were from China. This fully demonstrates that our domestic mobile phone brands are rising strongly and occupying an increasingly important position in the world.

But don't be too happy too soon. I looked at the mobile phones with the highest shipments last year. Wow, they were almost all monopolized by various models of iPhones and Samsung. I can only say that in the high-end market, domestic manufacturers still have a long way to go compared with Apple and Samsung.

Of course, if we focus our attention on the domestic market, the competition in China's smartphone market is also quite fierce, and the situation is a little different.

The total shipment volume in the domestic market in 2024 is 271.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among them, vivo has been firmly in the top spot of domestic mobile phone brands for four consecutive years. At the same time, Huawei has achieved a comprehensive reversal of Apple, including the largest increase in market share compared with the previous year.

To be honest, Huawei’s performance last year was a bit surprising. It encountered so many troubles in the past few years and everyone was worried about it. Unexpectedly, not only did it not get defeated, but it also fought a beautiful comeback and staged a "return of the king", making it a true protagonist of a cool article.

It is not surprising that vivo can achieve such performance. In recent years, the blue factory has been focusing on "steady and steady" - low-end volume battery life, mid-range volume configuration, and high-end volume imaging. It is precisely thanks to this strategy of precise efforts in different price ranges that it has achieved both good reputation and sales.

In comparison, Apple is not having such a good time in China.

Although the statistical calibers of various research institutions are different, resulting in slightly different results, the data they provide, without exception, reflect that Apple's shipments and market share are both declining. To put it bluntly, the iPhone is not selling so well in China...

Just look at the speed at which the prices of the iPhone 16 series have dropped this year. Not only are third-party channels lowering prices, but even official channels have rarely seen price cuts across the entire series. Whether Apple fans admit it or not, the competitiveness of the iPhone in the domestic high-end market has been weakening over the years.

As for the reason, I believe everyone knows it. The iPhone's annual upgrades are in sharp contrast to the great strides made by domestic manufacturers in imaging, system experience, etc. In recent years, a number of domestic manufacturers, including Huawei, have formed a direct impact on Apple in the high-end market.

In addition, due to compliance issues, the Chinese version of the iPhone has not yet used Apple AI, which further weakens its competitiveness.

On the other hand, domestic manufacturers such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, while launching powerful AI assistants, have also begun to force compatibility with the Apple ecosystem in their systems. The exclusive advantage of iOS is getting smaller and smaller. To this, I just want to say that your next iPhone does not have to be an Apple one.

And I have a feeling that the data in 2025 will be even better - you know the reason, the government subsidies are here!

To be honest, the effect of national subsidies on promoting market transaction volume is quite obvious. CCTV has already reported that the sales of mobile phones in the price range of less than 2,000 yuan, 2,000-4,000 yuan, and 4,000-6,000 yuan have increased by 10%, 52% and 108% respectively compared with the Spring Festival holiday last year. It's really impressive!

Based on the performance of various mobile phone manufacturers at the beginning of this year, it is hard to say who will win the annual sales champion in the domestic mobile phone market. Let us wait and see.

Foldable screen mobile phones, from being a novelty to a necessity

In addition to traditional candy-bar phones, the data on the foldable screen phone market is also quite interesting.

In 2024, global foldable screen shipments are between 18.3 million and 20 million units, of which the domestic market accounts for nearly half, with shipments of 9.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30.8%. However, the growth rate has slowed significantly compared with previous years. In the fourth quarter, there was a year-on-year decline of 9.6% for the first time.

This shows that the entire foldable screen market has begun to shift from rapid expansion to rational adjustment. For example, some people originally bought foldable screen phones simply to try something new or to show off, but now its main consumer group has become those who already have a demand for large screens and portability.

Moreover, large foldable phones account for more than 70% of domestic shipments, while small foldable phones are relatively not selling well. I even saw news online that manufacturers such as OPPO and vivo have suspended their small foldable product lines and turned to focus on the research and development of large foldable phones.

However, in the domestic folding screen market, Huawei alone occupies 48.6% of the market share, which really proves the saying "far ahead". This has put other domestic manufacturers in a difficult position.

In view of this, other manufacturers' next large folding mobile phones are likely to abandon the all-around flagship route of performance and imaging, and instead follow Huawei's path of being thin and light and business-oriented. It is estimated that there will be no large folding phones like the vivo X Fold3 Pro, whose imaging is on par with the straight-screen flagship of the same period.

You see, OPPO has already done this. Find N5 completely abandons the unique approach of the previous Find N series and begins to pursue extreme lightness and thinness. If you cover the logo and say it is Huawei Mate X7, I would believe it.

Considering that Apple's first foldable phone will probably be released next year, the competition in the foldable phone market will definitely be more intense. I personally look forward to what new things Apple will come up with, and I am also curious about what measures other manufacturers will take to deal with it. It will definitely be quite interesting~

Tablet market: two global giants, domestic competition

After talking about mobile phones, let’s take a look at the tablet market. To be honest, the situation on tablets is somewhat similar to that on mobile phones.

Last year, global tablet shipments reached 147.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. The top five global tablet shipment shares were Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Lenovo and Xiaomi. Among them, iPad ranked first in the world with an absolute leading advantage, but Xiaomi and Huawei were the fastest growing.

At the same time, China's tablet shipments in 2024 will be 29.85 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. The top five domestic tablet shipments are Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi, Honor and Lenovo. Except for Apple, whose share fell year-on-year, the others have more or less increased.

It seems that not only the iPhone is becoming increasingly difficult to sell in China, but the iPad is the same. However, it is not because it is not easy to use, but because domestic tablets are so popular.

With a budget of two to three thousand, you may only be able to buy a basic iPad from Apple, which lacks a high refresh rate and large capacity. But if you buy a domestic tablet, the performance, high refresh rate, battery life and capacity are all clearly arranged, and the price-performance ratio is maximized. If I were in their shoes, I would also give priority to domestic tablets.

I have an idea. Apple might as well put the 120Hz ProMotion high refresh rate on non-Pro models. In this way, Apple may be able to regain some market share in China through this operation. Otherwise, if sales continue to decline and are caught up by other domestic manufacturers, it will not look good.

PC market: old brands compete for supremacy, Lenovo is king

Different from the previous mobile phone and tablet markets, the global PC market in 2024 will still be dominated by established manufacturers such as Lenovo, HP, and Dell.

In 2024, global PC shipments will be about 262.7 million units. Lenovo will sit firmly in the top spot with approximately 61.8 million units shipped and a market share of 23.5%, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. It is definitely the "big brother" in the PC industry, followed closely by HP and Dell, and then Apple and Asus.

Although there have always been various controversies about the Lenovo brand on the Internet, it is undeniable that they do have the strength. Their supply chain is already quite mature and complete, and their consumer, business and gaming product lines are basically fully covered. It is no accident that they are number one in the world.

However, I really didn't expect Apple to be ranked fourth. You know, Apple's product line is not very rich and the price is also high. Under such circumstances, it can still achieve such a result. It can be seen how much content creators like Mac (I don't think anyone buys a Mac just for playing games~

As for the shipment data of the domestic PC market, I searched around on the Internet but couldn't find any. I only found some quarterly data.

For example, in the first quarter of 2024, PC shipments fell by 12%, 6% in the second quarter, and 1% in the third quarter. The domestic demand for PCs has generally shown a downward trend. If it were not for the national subsidies in the second half of the year that stimulated a wave of consumption in advance, shipments might have declined even more sharply.

In the TV market, domestically produced Mini LEDs are on the rise

Like PCs, TV shipments have also fallen sharply. Last year, the shipments of branded complete sets in the Chinese TV market were 35.96 million units, down 1.6% from 2023, directly breaking the lowest record of shipments in the Chinese market in more than a decade since 2010...

However, this is quite interesting. Although the TV shipment volume has dropped, the retail sales of China's TV market reached 120.2 billion last year, an increase of 12.3% compared with the previous year. This indirectly shows that many people are now willing to pay for high-end TVs when buying TVs.

Looking at the specific data, you will find that the sales of Mini LED TVs soared to 4.16 million units last year, an increase of 352%; and among them, the sales of 75-inch TVs accounted for as high as 23.2%, surpassing the 65-inch size that had the highest share in the previous year, becoming the best-selling TV size.

The shipment rankings in the Chinese TV market in 2024 (including sub-brands) are: Hisense, Xiaomi, TCL, Skyworth, Changhong, Konka, Haier and Huawei. Other foreign brands such as Sony and Samsung have a market share of less than 5%, and their combined shipments do not exceed one million units.

This wave of domestic television has really made us proud.

Finally, let’s briefly summarize

The digital world of 2024 feels like an Avengers movie.

Huawei, with its Kirin chips and satellite communications, has staged a wave of "five years of hard work to make a brilliant Apple City" in China;

Xiaomi holds the price butcher in its left hand and the ecological pie in its right hand, and sends a cordial greeting to its international competitors - "Are You OK";

Transsion is even more amazing. African brothers may not have figured out what 5G is, but it has already ranked fourth in the world with "four SIM cards, four standby + square dance speakers";

As for Apple? Cook “strategically cut the price” of the iPhone 16 while watching Huawei carve the word “high-end” into the satellite antenna of the Mate 70;

The worst hit is the TV industry. Ever since domestic manufacturers overtook others with MiniLED and lowered the price of high-end TVs, Sony and Samsung have been forced to become "others". It really fits the saying - Don't despise the poor young people...

In short, 2024 taught us a truth - don't compete with Chinese manufacturers, because they are afraid of themselves when they are in trouble.

As for 2025, let the storm come even harder.