Counterpoint: US smartphone sales to fall 3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024

Counterpoint's report shows that although operators reported an easing of upgrade rates in the quarter, sales in the US smartphone market fell 3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024. The decline in sales was due to a decline in sales in the sub-$600 market, especially devices priced below $300. Due to increased demand for high-end smartphones during the holiday season, sales in the price range of $600 and above increased by 4% year-on-year, which limited further declines in the overall US market.

Commenting on the market price range dynamics, Maurice Klaehne, Senior Research Analyst, said: "In the last quarter of the year, the US market is typically driven more by the premium smartphone market. We saw a 4% year-over-year increase in sales of models priced $600 and above in the fourth quarter of 2024. Compared to the iPhone 15 series, the iPhone 16 series saw a 1% year-over-year increase in sales from the date of launch to the end of the first year of sales. The ongoing premiumization trend is driving consumers to purchase more expensive smartphones when upgrading their devices. Apple's sales increased by double digits as the expanded product portfolio of Pixel 9 resonated well with consumers. Nearly a year after the launch of GenAI devices in the US market, we believe GenAI-driven demand remains sluggish. With the emergence of second-generation GenAI smartphones such as the S25, we expect demand to increase."

Klaehne added: “The sub-$600 smartphone market declined 20 percent year-over-year due to consolidation at the low end of the market and weaker device demand, particularly in the sub-$300 segment. Consumers in this segment are more price sensitive and have not experienced the macroeconomic recovery seen in the U.S. in terms of job and wage growth.”