Omdia: Mobile subscriber and revenue forecasts for the first quarter of 2024

Growth is expected to continue to be concentrated in Africa, Oceania, and East and Southeast Asia, where consumers are increasingly connected and migrating to 4G.

North America and China are expected to witness strong growth in IoT users during the forecast period. Countries such as India and Saudi Arabia are expected to witness significant growth in IoT services. For example, Saudi Arabia is investing heavily in its smart city projects.

Service revenue is expected to grow 5.2% in 2023 and will continue to grow during the forecast period, with a growth rate of 2.8% by 2028. Omdia predicts that by 2028, mobile service revenue will reach $969 billion (all revenues in this forecast are adjusted for the US dollar exchange rate in the fourth quarter of 2023), with a compound annual growth rate of 3.7%.

suggestion

Networks must provide new products to boost revenue: 5G capabilities, especially in the enterprise space, can be a key source of revenue growth for operators and can provide consumers with new experiences through live content (such as sports), augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) experiences, and 4K ultra-high-definition (UHD) video. Good partnerships between networks and content providers will create good 5G services, thereby accelerating the adoption of 5G.

Surcharges on 5G may boost revenues in the short term, but hurt network operators in the long run: As with any new technology that is just launched, especially one with high associated capex costs, operators will obviously consider charging a surcharge to get a quick return on investment. However, doing so could undermine long-term revenues, as other operators that do not charge a surcharge can use lower pricing to attract customers. Because 5G reduces operators' associated data transmission costs, it can improve margins without raising prices and jeopardizing subscriber numbers.

It cannot be ignored that the dominant technology is still 4G: in markets where 3G users still account for a large proportion, attention should continue to be paid to the expansion of 4G infrastructure to fully utilize resources and accelerate consumer migration before turning the focus to 5G.

Source: Omdia