TrendForce: Global smartphone shipments to reach 296 million units in the first quarter of 2024

Global market research firm TrendForce said that compared with the first quarter of last year, suppliers have significantly lowered their production targets to solve the serious problem of channel inventory accumulation. Therefore, even though the production volume of smartphones in the first quarter of this year was lower than the level of more than 300 million units before the epidemic, it still had a seemingly good year-on-year growth rate of 18.7%, with total shipments of 296 million units.

Global consumer spending is relatively conservative due to the pressure of high inflation and international conflicts. In addition, some brands were active in production in the first quarter, which led to increased channel inventory, which had to be adjusted as a priority. Therefore, TrendForce is not optimistic about the production quantity forecast for the second quarter, estimating a decline of 5-10% from the previous quarter.

Judging from the production market share ranking in the first quarter, the top six in the world are Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, Transsion and Vivo, accounting for nearly 80% of the market share.

Samsung produced 59.5 million units in the first quarter, ranking first in market share. Among them, the Galaxy S24 series benefited from the hot sales driven by the AI ​​topic, accounting for 22.5% of the output in the first quarter, an increase of 20% compared with the Galaxy S23 series last year. In the second quarter, due to the A series' overseas sales not meeting expectations, the production figures are expected to drop to less than 55 million units, and the quarterly decline may exceed 10%.

Apple's sales in China declined in the first quarter, and its production performance declined to 47.9 million units compared with the same period last year. Correspondingly, there were many revisions in the component supply chain, but the original production plan for processor chips was maintained. TrendForce said that the second quarter was a window period for Apple's product iteration, and estimated that the total production volume would decline by about 10% quarter-on-quarter.

Xiaomi (including Xiaomi, Redmi, and Poco) bid farewell to the high inventory of the same period last year, with a total production of 41.1 million units in the first quarter, ranking third in the world in market share. Since the second half of 2023, the brand has been motivated by inventory replenishment, coupled with internal policies to increase investment in emerging markets, so its market operation strategy has changed from passively reducing inventory levels to optimistic layout. However, as the global economy has not improved significantly, emerging markets are facing fierce competition with more people than products, and it is estimated that the brand will set a production target of the same level as the first quarter in the second quarter.

Oppo (including Oppo, OnePlus, and Realme) produced 33.8 million units in the first quarter, ranking fourth in market share. The brand competes fiercely with Honor in China, so even though its sales in emerging markets such as India have increased slightly, its annual growth rate in the first quarter is still lower than that of other Android brands with a low base period. Oppo's production target for the second quarter is also to maintain the same level as the first quarter. In addition, as Oppo has reached a settlement in the patent dispute with Finnish telecom giant Nokia, Oppo will return to the German market in the second half of this year.

Transsion experienced a nearly 50% annual growth last year, and its optimistic trend continued in the first quarter of this year. The brand produced a total of approximately 29.8 million units in the first quarter, with an impressive year-on-year growth performance, and its market share ranked fifth in the world. However, the overly aggressive output in the first quarter, coupled with the overlap with Samsung, Xiaomi, Lenovo and other brands in the low-end sales market, led to the accumulation of channel inventory.

Vivo (including Vivo and iQoo) produced and shipped 21.7 million units in the first quarter, ranking sixth in the quarterly market share. In the second quarter, the brand will launch extended models of the flagship X100 series, and with the 618 promotion, the total production volume is expected to maintain the first quarter's production performance.