Flurry: Understanding the two major players in the mobile market

For four years, the mobile operating system market has been a two-horse race, with Apple's iOS and Google's Andorid. In the past year, Android's rise has been highly anticipated, with a market share that is far ahead. But in recent days, many analysts have begun to question the true value of Android's market share, especially in the high-end smartphone and tablet markets. We feel that we can no longer focus on device sales or activations, but take a step back and really understand which market or markets they are competing for.

We took that approach in this report and found that the battle for mobile market share is happening on multiple fronts simultaneously. We analyzed four years of Flurry statistics to understand the state of each competitive front, exploring the strengths and weaknesses of each side, while also considering the impact on the entire mobile ecosystem.

Android devices lead in market share

Judging from official announcements from major hardware manufacturers like Apple and Samsung, it’s clear that Android is leading in device share. Flurry’s data supports this conclusion. The number of Android devices we track has doubled over the past year, reaching 564 million in April 2013. While the number of iOS devices we track has also increased over this period, Android’s share of active devices took the lead at the end of 2012 and has remained there ever since. This can be seen in the chart below. But before that, the two sides had been battling it out for about a year, alternating in the lead. Going back further, Apple has been leading with the iPhone and iPad. The chart also shows the release dates of several important iOS and Android devices for reference.

iOS apps lead the pack

Despite Android's rapid growth and leading position in app share, iOS still leads in app usage time. Android app usage time tied with iOS in March 2012, but has declined since the release of the third-generation iPad.

Why is the app share inconsistent with the device share?

After looking at the two graphs above, one can't help but ask, why doesn't the app usage share keep pace with the device share? We think there are at least three possible explanations.

One is that the two dominant operating systems are still attracting different types of users. After Apple established the application ecosystem, many consumers who bought iOS devices mainly bought them to run applications on them. They bought a computer that can fit in their pocket or handbag. In contrast, many Android devices are provided free by operators to contract users, and many of them are upgraded from feature phones. In this sense, these users just bought a new phone, and applications may be a nice supplement, but they are by no means the core function.

The second possible reason is that the fragmented nature of the Android operating system creates greater barriers to app development and limits the availability of app content. There are hundreds of phone models running the Android operating system, from a variety of manufacturers. App developers not only have to ensure that their apps display and work properly on all devices, but they also have to take into account the differences in Andorid versions, mainly because existing Android devices are not as efficient as iOS devices in upgrading their systems.

The last possibility is related to the above two reasons. It is precisely because iOS has a larger and richer ecosystem that makes iOS stronger. iOS users use more apps, which attracts developers to design more apps for iOS, which in turn can enhance the iOS user experience and create a word-of-mouth effect, further increasing app usage.

Other competition

While app share and device share are two battlegrounds in mobile, they are not the only ones. Another area of ​​focus is profit, where Apple is far ahead. Apple also seems to be ahead in terms of developer interest—partly due to the higher usage mentioned above, and partly because of evidence that iOS users generate higher advertising and in-app purchase revenue.

Android is ahead of other companies in emerging markets, mainly due to low prices and open source policies. Apple has noticed this and has begun to fight back with various policies, launching installment payment and cash back programs in some countries. For example, according to the Times of India, these programs have boosted iPhone sales in the country by 400% in recent months.

Multiple winners?

In summary, there are multiple battlefields in the mobile market at the same time. The question is: Is this a temporary state, and will there be a single dominant player? Or will this be a long-term situation with multiple winners? For now, it seems that consumers are benefiting from this because they can choose between two dominant operating systems and several other smaller ecosystems as candidates.