When will the new coronavirus epidemic reach a turning point?

The novel coronavirus epidemic is a problem that people all over the country are very concerned about. Many people are waiting for the turning point of the epidemic. Because if the turning point appears, it is very likely that the epidemic will be overcome soon, and everyone will be able to return to work and school as soon as possible. So when will the epidemic turn around? When can we go back to work as usual?

When will the new coronavirus be back to work?

It cannot be guaranteed at the moment. After all, the turning point of the epidemic has not yet appeared. Even if it does, there is no guarantee of normal resumption of work.

After all, the turning point does not mean that the epidemic has disappeared. It only means that the epidemic has been effectively controlled, but the virus still exists in large quantities, and the transmission route has been temporarily cut off. At this time, if people start to move in large numbers again and the transmission route is opened again, it will inevitably spread again, leading to a second outbreak!

Furthermore, some asymptomatic carriers will spread the virus as people move around, and pass it on to other healthy people who will show symptoms. This type of asymptomatic person is what we usually call type B people. This type of B person is the most terrifying.

Therefore, if the turning point has arrived, we still have to observe for a period of time. Only when we are sure that the virus has basically disappeared or the source of the virus has cut off the transmission route, can we go to work safely.

The inflection point has not appeared, which means that there are a large number of transmission sources, the transmission routes have not been cut off at all, and the number of cases is at a peak or plateau. At this time, going out to work will undoubtedly add fuel to the fire, accelerate the spread of the virus, and accelerate human-to-human transmission. Not only will there be no inflection point, but it will also create a larger epidemic and lead to a larger inflection point.

When will the epidemic reach a turning point?

The inflection point refers to the turning point when the number of people first remains the same, then rapidly decreases, and finally returns to normal or eliminates the disease. According to Academician Wang Chen, President of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, it is still difficult to judge the inflection point. Because the current epidemic situation is unclear and the basis for judgment is insufficient... Many people have not been isolated, and the spread in the community and family is quite serious; the virus mutation is unpredictable; a large number of people returning to work is a test; and it is also related to the warming weather.

If quarantine measures are strictly implemented across the country, the three cycles will basically be able to control the spread of the virus. In terms of time, it will take 14X3=42 days.

Based on the three cycles of virus control, the turning point will occur in the middle and late stages of the second cycle, which is about 14 days + 7 days.

The first quarantine period ended on February 4th. If we add another 7 days, the turning point of the virus will be around February 21st. According to the current prediction chart of Zhong Nanshan and Tsinghua University, the turning point will also be around February 19th.

Can I still work normally if the turning point does not appear?

If the turning point does not appear, general industries will not go to work, but industries related to people's lives and medical care will have to go to work.

If there is no turning point, schools cannot open. A school usually has hundreds or thousands of students, and a university has tens of thousands of students. There are 50 people in a class. During class, 50 students are concentrated in a room of dozens of square meters. When it is cold, the windows have to be closed, and the air in the classroom is not circulating. Therefore, all provinces and cities have made it clear that schools will not open until the epidemic is under control.

If there is no turning point, except for special industries, general labor-intensive industries cannot go to work. For example, it is impossible to go to work in the mechanical processing industry and the construction industry before the epidemic has reached a turning point, because places where people gather are prone to infection.

Civil servants are always at work. I have a relative who works at the tax bureau. I asked him if he had been to work. He said that he had started working on the third day of the first lunar month and had to go to work every day, but the number of people at work was much less than usual because there were not many people coming to do business.

The medical and health care system and the pharmaceutical industry have been working overtime. Our hospitals and some pharmaceutical companies are working overtime during this extraordinary period. They are all working overtime. They have to go to work.

Our food companies are also working. Because rice, flour and oil are necessary for every one of us, they are indispensable for three meals a day. If we skip one meal, we will be hungry. Therefore, food production companies also need to work.

Related News

It is too early to say that the Lantern Festival is a turning point. We must grit our teeth in the “darkness before dawn”

Judging from two other models developed by domestic universities, both predict that mid-to-late February will be the turning point of the national epidemic, that is, the number of infections will reach its peak.

So now is not the time to underestimate the enemy or go out and have fun.

Although experts such as Zhong Nanshan and Gao Fu have previously expressed optimistic estimates that the epidemic may turn around the Lantern Festival, all this is based on the understanding of the epidemic at the time and the initial situation of safely passing the peak period of return trips. The epidemic is complex and has many influencing factors. Experts in the past two days have analyzed that now is the most critical period.