What is the garlic market in 2020? The latest forecast of garlic prices in 2020

The price of fresh garlic in 2020 can only be simply predicted to be between 0.8 and 1 yuan per catty. In 2016, when garlic was the most expensive, everyone expanded the garlic planting area, and in 2017, the price of fresh garlic was around 1.0 yuan per catty. For the latest forecast of garlic prices in 2020, please refer to the introduction provided in this article.

What is the garlic market like in 2020?

According to industry insiders, the price of new garlic is now higher in order to consume the old garlic inventory. Otherwise, the old garlic inventory is large, the buyers feel pressured, and there may be a risk of loss, so the only way is to raise the price of fresh garlic. This is very critical, because the artificial increase in the price of fresh garlic is a false prosperity, and the price of old garlic is deliberately lowered. Therefore, there has been a rare peak in the outbound shipment of old garlic recently, and it can be predicted that the outbound shipment will still be dominated by old garlic before the Spring Festival.

By the time of the Chinese New Year, garlic will definitely be very expensive, and people will have to pay more. I remember one year during the Chinese New Year, the price of garlic rose to 12 yuan per catty, which was really expensive.

However, the price will not be so high this year, after all, there is such a large stock of garlic. Because of the favorable garlic market this year, people have expanded the area of ​​garlic planting and increased investment. According to statistics, the national garlic planting area has increased by about 30%. As a result, the garlic production will double next year, and the garlic price will fall. In the absence of major natural disasters, the price of new garlic is not optimistic.

The latest forecast of garlic prices in 2020

The probability of a cold winter this year is basically zero. The temperature may drop after winter really comes, but at least in the past two days since the beginning of winter, the temperature has not dropped, but has become warmer and warmer. However, garlic prefers a relatively cool environment. After being planted in September and October, it is still relatively warm in November, which is not conducive to its growth to a certain extent. However, I think these are not particularly important and will not fundamentally affect the garlic harvest.

Therefore, to sum up, don’t worry too much about the rise and fall of garlic prices next year. The price should be similar to this year, about three or four yuan per catty for fresh garlic and six or seven yuan per catty for dried garlic.

The main factors affecting garlic price trend

The garlic planting area, the amount of garlic stored in cold storage, the amount of hot money entering the garlic trading market, and the impact of natural disasters.

(1) Changes in garlic planting area in 2019

Since the price of garlic is relatively good this year, for example, the garlic farmers here sell garlic at a price of 3.2-3.5 yuan per catty, and the yield is about 2,800 catties per mu, with a net income of about 5,000 yuan per mu, which has led to a significant expansion of garlic planting this year. After all, the income from wheat planting is basically stable, at about 800 yuan per mu, so it is not as good as the income from garlic planting.

(2) How much garlic is left in the cold storage?

In 2019, the storage capacity of garlic in cold storage was between 2.9 and 3 million tons. When the new garlic is harvested in late May of 2020, the consumption of garlic in the nearly 7 months should not be too small. (The main reason is that the price of garlic is relatively stable. If the price is high, the consumption of garlic will decrease.)

(3) Can hot money enter the garlic market?

In the process of market trading of each commodity, if there is no large amount of hot money entering, the entire market transaction will be very calm and the price will not fluctuate too much. For example, the price of garlic has been very stable in 2018.

(3) Impact of natural disasters

Due to the influence of the El Nino phenomenon, our eastern Henan region has experienced a "warm winter" in recent years, so the impact of frost damage on garlic in winter is almost zero. In this case, the impact of natural disasters on garlic is mainly reflected in whether there is a "late spring cold" in the spring of 2020. The impact of "late spring cold" on garlic is only reflected in the impact on the yield of garlic stalks, and basically has no effect on the yield of garlic heads.