IDC: Smartphone shipments to grow 2.8% in 2024

The global smartphone market has shrunk every year for the past seven years. 2024 will be the year when the smartphone market resumes growth. According to the latest forecast from IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.2 billion units in 2024, up 2.8% year-over-year, with low single-digit growth rates through 2028. Overall volumes are still below pre-pandemic levels, and IDC believes the market has self-corrected and is on its way out of the trough.

"Even considering the years before the pandemic, the smartphone market has been operating under challenging conditions," said Ryan Reith, group vice president of IDC's Worldwide Mobile and Consumer Device Trackers. "While the world continues to face a challenging macroeconomic environment, some device categories competing for wallet share are returning to growth, including PCs. IDC firmly believes that the smartphone will remain the quintessential device for most people, but continued price increases and improved smartphone durability have led to longer replacement cycles, which will curb growth in new shipments."

Device replacement cycles and growing demand in emerging markets are undoubtedly key drivers of overall market recovery, but recent technological developments have brought new vitality to the smartphone industry. Most notably, foldable smartphones continue to grow rapidly, with an expected year-on-year growth of 37% and shipments reaching 25 million units in 2024. In addition, artificial intelligence (AI) has quickly become a part of the smartphone focus, sparking new interest in the next generation of smartphones.