Something is wrong with monkeypox this time!

According to AFP, the World Health Organization reported on the 5th that 780 cases of monkeypox have been reported in 27 non-monkeypox endemic countries and regions around the world. It is still a bit unexpected that all six continents except Antarctica have been set on fire.

The monkeypox was first reported on this day last month. In just one month, it has spread to 27 countries. The transmission method of monkeypox is not relatively simple. Why is it spreading so fast this time? Let's talk about this with you today.

01. Monkeypox clearly illuminates other modes of transmission

At the beginning, the most common theory about the monkeypox outbreak was that it was sexually transmitted, which was said to have been caused by some special party.

However, up to now, there are 27 countries involved, so this cannot be used to explain the subsequent spread.

The main mode of transmission of monkeypox is contact transmission, but aerosol transmission also occurs.

Given the current intensity of the outbreak, and the relatively small r0 of monkeypox itself, it should be mainly transmitted through methods other than sexual transmission.

02. More may yet to be discovered

If the virus is only confined to the UK or the US, according to the public health standards in Europe and the US, although the epidemic prevention is poor, there is still a level of reported cases, so there should not be a large number of undetected cases.

But now it has spread to 27 countries, and these 27 countries may not all have relatively abundant public health resources, which may mean that many cases have not yet been discovered.

This will further cause community transmission and increase the number of infections.

Especially in countries like Argentina, Australia, Morocco and the UAE, where public health levels are inadequate, further spread may occur.

03. Are there other sources that are continuing to spread?

In fact, this wave of the virus first appeared in the UK.

But there is still a problem, that is, Africa, the monkeypox stronghold, cannot be ignored. The following table shows the monkeypox outbreaks in Africa during the five months from January to June 1 this year.

44 confirmed cases, 66 deaths, and 1,408 suspected cases. It can be seen that this scale is still very large, and there is no Jinkela in Africa, so the accuracy of that data is too poor, which also means that Africa may also be a big drug den.

04. About Monkeypox

As mentioned before, monkeypox is a mixed blessing. Let’s start with the optimistic side:

First, monkeypox is difficult to mutate

The most profound impression of the novel coronavirus is its mutation. The reason is that it is an RNA virus, and most RNA viruses are single-stranded. Once mutated, it is difficult to repair the lack of complementary strands. In addition, in the same replication process, RNA has an additional reverse transcription process, which also increases the probability of replication mutation. Monkeypox is a DNA virus, which is much more difficult to mutate.

Therefore, monkeypox has been around for decades, and there are actually not many variants, and there are only two main evolutionary branches.

The sequencing results of the latest monkeypox found that the core region of this monkeypox did not mutate compared with previous years. According to today's epidemic prevention and science, such a relatively stable virus is much easier to deal with. This is easy to understand. We have all heard of the plague, a Class A infectious disease in humans. It occurs every year, but it has basically not caused a major epidemic in recent years. On the contrary, small viruses such as influenza, which are always mutating, need to develop and vaccinate new vaccines every year, which is very troublesome.

The second more optimistic point is that we have some strategies to deal with monkeypox.

The sudden emergence of the new coronavirus has stunned all of us. It is too new and we have never seen it before.

Monkeypox is different. We at least have a smallpox vaccine. Although it has not been produced for many years, it is still 85% effective. Many countries have the ability to produce smallpox vaccines. my country has the Tiantan strain and the WHO standard strain.

As long as we have weapons, we won't be afraid of it.

Third, monkeypox spreads much slower than COVID-19. For example, the Omicron virus that has been raging recently has a basic transmission R0 of 9.5, which means one person infects nine people, while the R0 of monkeypox is only about 1. So we have enough time to deal with it.

But that doesn't mean we can completely relax our vigilance. There are also some pessimistic aspects to this monkeypox outbreak. First, the places where it appeared are different. Monkeypox first appeared in Central Africa and West Africa, where the economy is backward and medical care is very primitive. We even have to question whether the local epidemiological records of monkeypox are accurate.

But now monkeypox has appeared in many developed countries with advanced medical and public health systems, and under such circumstances, monkeypox is still spreading relatively quickly.

Moreover, the mobility of people in developed countries is much faster than in Africa, which has accelerated the spread of monkeypox. It is likely to appear in more countries in the future.

Perhaps we should be wary.

The second more pessimistic point is that the scale of infection is not small.

There are nearly 800 cases of monkeypox outside of Africa, and they are spreading in multiple locations, which means there are likely many infected people who may be in the incubation period. Coupled with the speed at which they spread freely, they could cause a larger-scale infection.

The third point is that humans have lost their shield

Yes, smallpox vaccine works, the problem is you don't have it.

On October 26, 1977, the World Health Organization announced that the smallpox virus had been eradicated worldwide. In the past 40 years, the human population has increased by billions, and smallpox has been eradicated, so we no longer administer smallpox vaccines.

So once we come into contact with monkeypox, we really have no resistance. Some people may think: why don't we just get vaccinated against smallpox again? In theory, it is true, but it takes a long time to produce the vaccine again, especially if we want to meet the needs of all mankind, we will have to wait a long time.

In general, when a virus spreads rapidly in the human body, it is prone to rapid evolution, which is what we call the problem of breeding poison. What ordinary people can do is probably to avoid contact with rodents, especially those who like pets.

How to keep monkeypox out of the country? That is a question the country needs to consider.