When will the price of pork stop rising and when will the price of pork return to normal?

Farmers almost don't raise pigs anymore, and a large number of breeding bases have switched to other production. Live pigs are mainly imported. I am optimistic about the prospects of the live pig market. The price of pigs cannot be reduced in a short period of time. It will take some time for the price of pork to return to its previous normal price. It will take at least a year to restore the previous price!

When will the price of pork stop rising?

If we analyze it according to the current situation, there is absolutely no way to restore the normal price within a year. The so-called normal price is generally 13 to 15 yuan per catty. The price of pork has reached 38 yuan per catty. My God, it has risen by nearly three times. Moreover, the current number of live pigs is still decreasing, which means that the demand for pork will increase in the future, but the supply of pork will not keep up. Then the price must have a lot of room for increase. Therefore, the current pork price is far from reaching its peak. When the pork consumption peaks during the Spring Festival, the price of pork will reach this year's peak, which may reach 80 yuan per catty.

Normally, if the price of pork rises sharply and the profit margin is very large, more and more people will raise pigs. However, this year, a very abnormal situation has occurred. Even though my country now encourages everyone to raise pigs on a large scale and the subsidies are very large, the number of pig farmers has not increased, but has decreased. The main reason for this is that the previous pig farmers changed their pig farms into chicken farms, and raising chickens is a very long process, which will last at least a year. During this year, their farms cannot be changed into pig farms, so at least in the next year, the number of live pigs cannot return to normal levels.

When will pork prices return to normal?

It takes six months from a piglet to be raised into a slaughtered pig, or a live pig can be slaughtered for profit when it weighs about 220 kilograms. Therefore, six months from next year will be around July. So I personally think that the market price of pork will return to normal at least around September next year. Because a price buffer is needed during the supply of live pigs, the price will basically return to normal around September next year.

Industry insiders have previously analyzed that at least in the next 2 to 3 years, my country's pig inventory will not be able to return to normal levels, so it will take at least 2 to 3 years for pork prices to return to their previous levels. Even if the demand for pork decreases after the Spring Festival, the price of pork will at least remain at a high level, which should be able to reach 20 yuan per catty. It should be impossible to return to 14 to 15 yuan per catty. Therefore, it will take about two years for pork prices to return to the era of more than 10 yuan per catty. What do you think?

Will pork prices drop in 2020?

Although the current market price of pork is ridiculously expensive and may get higher and higher, after all, this period is the time when pork is in great demand. But I believe that after the 2020 Spring Festival, pork prices will definitely fall, because by then the time of greatest demand will have passed, and by that time, some piglets that survived the African swine fever will have been able to be slaughtered one after another, and later on, the live pigs that were replenished during this period will almost be able to be sold. So by that time, pork prices are bound to fall, although I am not sure how much it will fall, but at least it will fall to a price that everyone can accept.