TrendForce: Foldable smartphone shipments are expected to reach 18.3 million units in 2023, up 43% year-on-year

2023 can be said to be a year of rapid development of foldable screens, which is the vitality of the popularization of this mobile phone category. In order to seize the foldable screen market, major manufacturers have basically released their own foldable screen "leading actresses". They each have different focuses in their own foldable screens, and they all contain their own ingenuity for foldable screens.

So what are the specific changes in the foldable screen market? What challenges will manufacturers face in the future? In this regard, I have conducted some in-depth analysis and research. Let's discuss this issue together.

Competition is intensifying and the market is thriving

According to the latest research report from TrendForce , a research organization, the shipment of foldable screen mobile phones is expected to be about 18.3 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 43%, accounting for only 1.6% of this year's smartphone market. At the same time, TrendForce pointed out that Huawei is expected to ship about 2.5 million foldable screen mobile phones this year. It is worth mentioning that although Samsung is currently the world's top 1 in foldable screen mobile phone shipments, its market share has dropped from 82% in 2022 to 68%. And the domestic manufacturers that have snatched market share from Samsung are Huawei, OPPO, Xiaomi, Honor, etc.

Looking at China, the growth rate of foldable screen mobile phones in China is also amazing. According to a report by International Data Corporation (IDC), in the third quarter of 2023, China's foldable screen mobile phone market continued to grow rapidly, with shipments reaching 1.96 million units, a year-on-year increase of 90.4%.

In the first three quarters of this year, Huawei's share of the domestic foldable screen mobile phone market ranked first, reaching 31.7%, with a very obvious advantage.

Samsung is still very competitive in the foldable screen mobile phone market, with a market share of 15.4%. Honor has obtained a market share of 15.1% and released three products in succession in the second quarter. Among them, Magic V2 has become the first in the foldable screen single product market share in the quarter with its strong product strength.

Only those who innovate can win, only those who make progress can become strong

Of course, the folding screen market is vibrant, and it is inseparable from the iterative upgrades of folding screen technology and the progress of design. Looking back at the folding screens released by major manufacturers, we can find that their attention to folding screens is unquestionable.

The problem that folding screens are criticized for is nothing more than that, apart from the unique advantage of providing a larger screen in a limited space, other experiences such as imaging and the thickness of the body are far inferior to those of straight-screen phones.

However, current manufacturers are also working hard to overcome these shortcomings and strive to launch folding screens comparable to candy-bar phones. Next, let's take a look at the efforts made by manufacturers for this purpose.

1. Honor has put a lot of effort into making the phone thin and light

The Honor Magic V2, launched in July 2023, leads the folding screen into the "millimeter" era with its folded thickness of only 9.9mm and weight of 231g. In comparison, the weight of the iPhone 14 Pro max of the same period is 240g, and the weight of the Honor Magic V2 is already comparable to the straight-screen flagship.

In order to achieve a level of lightness and thinness comparable to that of a straight-screen flagship, the Honor Magic V2 series has been completely reconstructed in terms of architecture, materials, devices, modules, etc., and innovatively customized each component to be light and thin.

At the same time, a new generation of self-developed hinge components, Luban titanium hinges, are used to ensure the strength of the hinge. The hinge shaft cover is the first to use titanium alloy 3D printing technology. The width is reduced by 27% compared to aluminum alloy, but the strength is increased by 150%, which perfectly balances lightness and reliability.

In order to make it even thinner and lighter, Honor has also specially customized a 0.22mm ultra-thin heat dissipation VC, Type-C interface module, etc., to further compress the internal space of the folding screen.

Not only that, Honor is not satisfied with this. In September, it launched the new outward-folding folding screen Honor V Purse, which is extremely thin and light. The folding solution of Honor V Purse is different from the current mainstream folding screen option - inward folding. It adopts the outward folding solution.

Compared with the inward folding solution, the Honor V Purse has one less screen, so it has a greater advantage in terms of lightness and thinness. In terms of thickness, the Honor V Purse is only 8.6mm in the folded state and weighs as little as 214g, which is already lighter than some straight flagships.

At the same time, in order to avoid the lack of strength due to being too thin, Honor V Purse uses butterfly wing hinges and soft damping technology to make the opening and closing smoother, improving the user experience. With super elastic metal, the support is stronger, making Honor V Purse both thin and strong.

2. Huawei, Xiaomi, and OPPO continue to make progress in imaging

Xiaomi Mi MIX Fold 3 is equipped with a periscope telephoto lens with four cameras and five focal lengths, covering a focal length of 15mm-115mm. The main camera can achieve a two-fold focal length expansion based on the ISZ function, and supports up to 50x digital zoom, making what you see in the distance appear vividly before your eyes.

As the leading folding screen manufacturer in China, Huawei has also used a periscope telephoto lens on its latest folding screen Mate X5, which supports 5x optical zoom, bringing the imaging capabilities of folding screens closer to those of straight-screen phones.

OPPO has even launched the OPPO Find N3, the foldable screen with the strongest imaging capabilities, under the slogan of "a new era of foldable screen imaging".

The wide-angle lens of Find N3 is equipped with Sony's latest double-layer transistor pixel structure image sensor, coupled with OPPO's super light and shadow image engine and the natural color engine jointly developed by OPPO and Hasselblad, OPPO Find N3 is undoubtedly the "king of imaging" among foldable screens, and its imaging performance is comparable to that of straight-screen flagships.

Knowing my heart and my intention is the driving force for users to buy

With the continuous advancement of technology and design, the user experience of foldable screen mobile phones is gradually improving, and consumer demand will also increase.

Of course, consumers' demand for and willingness to buy foldable screen phones are also increasing. In each price range, mid-to-high-end models occupy most of the market share and become the main choice for consumers to buy foldable screen phones.

Optimizing user experience and meeting user needs have become issues that major manufacturers need to focus on. Screen creases and software adaptation are the top priorities for major manufacturers.

Screen crease has always been a technical problem that is difficult to overcome for foldable screen mobile phones, and it is also one of the important factors that consumers consider when purchasing foldable screen mobile phones. However, manufacturers have made great efforts to solve this problem.

For example, OPPO Find N3 introduces a new generation of precision pseudo-vertebral hinge technology, which effectively reduces the screen crease by adopting an innovative key material, zirconium-based liquid metal.

The application of this innovative material not only significantly improves the flatness of the screen, but also greatly improves the durability of the hinge, making Find N3 the industry's first foldable screen mobile phone that can be folded more than one million times.

This major breakthrough marks a significant progress in the practicality and durability of foldable screen mobile phones, providing consumers with a more reliable and lasting foldable screen experience.

Of course, the software adaptation of foldable screens is also an important factor affecting user purchases. And various companies have begun to optimize the software adaptation of foldable screens. For example, Xiaomi supports the full adaptation of TOP200 applications, and the parallel window, smart small window and other functions can make its practicality even better.

Coincidentally, Huawei has also made a series of optimizations to software control, including a large-screen graphic layout with pictures on the left and text on the right, commenting while watching videos, and the first release of adapted mobile games.

OPPO has even innovatively launched the "Ultra-Vision Panoramic Virtual Screen" function, which allows you to put a 15-inch phone into your pocket. This function breaks through the physical boundaries of the screen, allowing the large screen to be split from "two half screens" to "three full screens", making the screen have edges but the content borderless.

Whether you need to check emails, schedules, memos and other information at the same time, or browse web pages, social software, music players and other applications at the same time, OPPO Find N3 allows you to open three screens at the same time and control multi-tasking with your fingertips.

As you chase each other, who will win?

By observing the competitive landscape of the folding screen market in 2023, we can see that the main brand manufacturers are still Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi, etc. Among them, Samsung maintains a leading position in folding screen technology, while Huawei relies on its strong brand influence and market share to occupy a place in the folding screen mobile phone market.

In addition, emerging manufacturers such as Honor and vivo are also trying to enter the foldable screen mobile phone market. The entry of these manufacturers will further promote changes in the competitive landscape of the foldable screen mobile phone market.

At the same time, with the continuous development of the industrial chain, the cost and price of foldable screen mobile phones are gradually decreasing, which will enable more consumers to access and purchase this new type of mobile phone.

In this year's Double 11, Honor's three folding screen brothers also successfully broke through and became the Double 11 champions in sales of folding screen products. It can be seen that as long as the product strength is strong enough, consumers will also pay for emerging folding screens.

The foldable screen market still has a long way to go

Although the foldable screen mobile phone market has broad prospects, there are still some problems and challenges.

First, the cost and price of foldable screen phones are still important factors restricting the development of the market. At present, the prices of most foldable screen phones are relatively high, and there is still a certain purchase threshold for ordinary consumers. After all, the price of a qualified foldable screen phone is higher than that of the top domestic flagship phones.

Secondly, the reliability and durability of foldable screen mobile phones are also one of the focuses of consumers. Due to the special structure of foldable screen mobile phones, screen wear and creases are prone to occur, which are inevitable.

This will affect the user experience and will also dampen users' intention to purchase foldable screen phones. Just imagine, if the foldable screen you are using has leakage, black spots, etc., will you still support the foldable screen?

Finally, the ecosystem and application adaptation issues of foldable screen phones also need to be solved. At present, although most mainstream applications have been adapted to foldable screen phones, some applications still fail to provide a good user experience.

Manufacturers’ requirements for software adaptation should not be just “enough”, but should ensure that consumers’ experience when using foldable screen phones is comparable to or even exceeds that of straight-screen flagships.

One foldable screen per capita? ——A guess on the future of the foldable phone market

Finally, the foldable screen mobile phone market still has broad development prospects. With the continuous advancement of technology and the improvement of the industrial chain, the cost and price of foldable screen mobile phones will gradually decrease, which will enable more consumers to access and purchase this new type of mobile phone.

Not only that, as more and more manufacturers enter the folding screen market, their influx will also inject vigor into the folding screen market. In this way, the folding screen mobile phone market may continue to maintain a rapid growth trend in the next few years.

Of course, this also requires manufacturers to take the initiative to create more technologies, designs, and innovations that benefit users and improve user experience.

It is worth noting that many manufacturers currently still have shortcomings in the after-sales service of foldable screen devices, which is one of the important reasons why many users are resistant to foldable screen devices.

Therefore, seeking a better after-sales service method that can balance the conflicting interests between users and manufacturers is an important aspect that manufacturers need to pay attention to.

After various optimizations, I believe that foldable screen mobile phones will no longer be the useless ones that the public thinks are "tasteless to eat, but a pity to throw away", and the popularity of one foldable screen mobile phone per capita will become not so far away.